Wherein Rick DiPietro is a character...

Mexico, apparently, was a little bit of an underdog coming into the International Championship Game for the Little League World Series. Their opponents, Japan, have been in this game, or sniffing around it for a while now. The Mexicans have been less consistent. By the middle of the third inning Mexico was down by two and trying to think of how to get into the game. Then, in the bottom of the third, the Mexicans turned it on. They batted around and, as I sit here watching, now possess a 5-2 lead. The Mexicans have been persistent in their approach towards Japan. They stayed patient, swung at the pitches they could hit, got on base, and now they have their opponents right where they want them. 

Such is the approach that Scott Gordon is going to have to take with Rick DiPietro. As we have seen and heard, Ricky has been growing a little bit, eh, uncoachable. That isn't to say that the right coach could not get through to him, but Rick has begun to realize that, not only has he become a star in the NHL, but that he has job security that you just cannot find anywhere else. 

His contract as it stands right now will allow him to outlast any coach that the Islanders hire. That is important because, at least to some extent coaches can be seen as members of management. I say this because on pro sports teams, the coach has an allegiance to his players, but reports to the GM, and at times works directly with him. It is all part of the synergy needed to create a winning team. 

At various points during the off season the GM, coach, and scouts will sit down and decide where the team is going and which players fit with that direction. These meetings will decide whether a player is traded, demoted, bought out, or just let go. Thus, it behooves a player to keep a relatively good rapport with the coach and the rest of the team, and generally to give it his all night in and night out. DP just does not fit into that mold. 

Rick is going to be with the team for so long that he likely will see two, or maybe three coaches before his contract is up. He is the team's star goaltender and the state of the roster is such that he cannot be replaced. Add to it that Rick is Garth Snow's good friend and that the team's all too hands-on owner Charlie Wang likes DP's style and we see that he won't be replaced. 

Without the fear that his play will impact his contract status Rick is somewhat impervious to the usual leverage a coach has. So, all this explanation leads up to the fact that Gordon is likely not ever going to be able to simply bench DP; that he just won't be able to be the typical coach, involved, but detached. Gordon is going to have to get into DiPietro's head, become his friend, and be able to actually speak to him. This is an area where, if you believe the reports, Ted Nolan failed.

Why this is necessary is something that tons of people take issue with, i.e. DP's personality. He is cocky. He is a little rude. He is super duper full of himself. At least that is what everyone says, though, they are probably right. Sorry, Rick, but people don't always like it when you act like you know how good you are. On the other hand, I have to say, lots of people say that Rick is a whiner. I'm pretty sure that that isn't true. Rick is a competitor and he wants to play. He is the type of guy that wants to be in the net during the second overtime in game seven of the Cup finals. He will play hurt and he will continually give it his all because to do less would bother him. That is why Gordon needs to handle him delicately. 

DiPietro's competitiveness and his ego will not permit him to recognize him limits. We all saw last season where DP injured his hip during the Allstar game. After that DP's play was garbage. He was trying, but he was too hurt to actually give it his all. That was Nolan's fault. 

When Rick began to falter the Isles were contending for a playoff spot. If Nolan had recognized that Rick was ailing the team could have shut DP down and tried to pick up a rental goalie like Cristobal Huet who was available for a 2nd round pick. Had that happened the Islanders may or may not have made the playoffs, but Nolan may very well still have a job. 

Now, however, we have Scott Gordon, and the youth movement is probably much better for it and DP should be better for it too. So long as Gordon can get into DiPietro's head, issues like play time and health should work themselves out. Gordon can approach DP and tell him that he is playing 55 or 60 games per season until he sees that Rick's hips still work, and that if Rick is hurt that he'll tell Gordon instead of slowly dropping into mediocrity. They can work out boundaries for Rick's exuberance. They can get past DP throwing pies into his teammates' faces and acting like a rockstar and get him to be a member of this team. 

Gordon needs to get the team to buy into his system and notions of accountability. But he needs to get DP to buy into it individually. If he can it will only be a short time until the Isles grow into a solid team with a topflight goalie; if not, Gordon's tenure may be just as rocky as Ted Nolan's.

Coaches, etc. pt. 2

After a brief respite I am back with a further break down of Bob Hartley and John Tortorella. I'm also going to throw in a few comments on one or two of the other coaching prospects and let you know who I want to coach the team. 

An sooo...

Bob Heartly:

I was going to offer a more in depth view of Bob Hartley and his stats and accolades, but Bob Hartley is a well enough known commodity that I could pick the sexy part of his NHL.com bio and go from there. So here it is:

In the 2002 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Hartley became the first NHL coach since 1967 (Billy Reay) to lead his team to the Conference Finals in his first four seasons with the same team. In 16 seasons as a head coach at the amateur and professional levels, Hartley's teams have qualified for the playoffs 14 times while capturing five league championships and have been a part of winning at least 40 games eight times and 30 or more contests on 14 occasions. His Avalanche teams won at least 42 games in four consecutive seasons from 1998-2002, including a 45-29-8 mark in 2001-02.

Hartley was also the coach that allowed the Thrashers to beat out the Columbus Blue Jackets for the honor of not being the last expansion team to make the playoffs. That being said, though, the Thrashers did not even put up a fight during those playoffs. That is the first negative point. The reason why this is such a negative is that the Thrashers had put up 97 points and won their division. They were nearly guaranteed a spot during that 06-07 season so its not as if they were so burned out. In fact, if any team should have appeared haggard during that series it was the Rangers, the Thrashers first playoff opponents. That is not how it all played out. Rather, the Thrashers played the most uninspired playoff hockey I have ever seen. They were not out gunned or over matched, just lazy and witless. If anyone is to blame for that it has to be the coach. As Hartley's bio makes clear, he has never lost a team's confidence, but somewhere along the line it happened.

This brings me to my next negative point; Hartley could not overcome his differences with the team and started 0-7 and was then canned. Most coaches will be fired for one reason or another during their coaching careers. Many times the coach will be the fall guy for a team that is short on success while also being short on talent, many people think this was Ted Nolan's plight. Bob Hartley's Thrashers last season had line up that was both different and similar to this coming season's Islanders. It was not youth centric, but there were players such as Tobias Enstrom, Chris Thorburn, Bryan Little, Garnet Exelby, and Jim Slater either playing for Hartley or who saw time with the Thrashers over the course of the season. 

These players represent the same type of youth the Islanders are going to be starting the season with. My point is that some of these youngsters were on the team this season when Hartley lost control. It likely does not behoove the Islanders to put him right back into the same position he was in with the Thrashers. Surely, he would try to do better, but the players talk and while Nolan was able to make the Islanders overachieve without a player like Ilya Kovalchuk, Hartley managed to launch the team into the aforementioned abomination of a start. If any of the Islanders speak to any of the Thrashers, like say Jon Sim, a former Thrasher, they may find out why Hartley lost control and he would be walking into a loaded locker room. On the other hand, Hartley managed to make the Avalanche work with a team that had many, many superstars. So, it could be a bit of a crap shoot with Harltey. Though, let's be real, these Islanders are going to perform similarly to last year's Thrashers, and last year's Islanders for that matter. Hartley took a team that could have continued an up tread and helped put them into the #3 draft pick. 

John Tortorella:

So, you basically can take the argument I made against Hartley and apply it to Tortorella. Only, here, management did not want to cause an upheaval in the team or disrespect a man that won the team a cup and so they left him in place. That's not the entire story though. Tortorella did not lose the team in the same way that Hartley lost the Thrashers. See, the thing is that Tortorella's lightning were already in upheaval. The team's sale was pending and a lot of players were the subjects of trade rumors and the team had no true stability. 

That being said, it is incumbent on the coach to make some changes to make the team more stable. Tortorella is known for having his teams play a wide open offensive style and, perhaps, he should have pulled that back a little bit. As they say defense wins games. Last year's Lightning possessed a great deal of fire power, but they only had four players that had an even +/- or better and one of them, Jeff Halpern, had been playing for another team where he was a -2. In short, Tortorella's up hill battle did not involve the team's loss of confidence in him, but rather a general loss of confidence in the state of the team by the players. Even if Tortorella had made defensive changes the team would not have fared much better. Eliminating some of the goals against would probably have put them in the same place as the Isles or Thrashers. So, they still would not have been a playoff team. 

As for coaching history, Tortorella's NHL.com coaching bio says this:

Tortorella got his first major break in 1988-89 when he was hired as an assistant coach with the New Haven Nighthawks of the American Hockey League. He became an assistant coach with the Buffalo Sabres the following season, and remained with the Sabres organization through the 1996-97 season. The Sabres recognized Tortorella's teaching abilities and named him the head coach of their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, prior to the 1995-96 season. His Rochester team won the Calder Cup in 1996 and followed that up with the best record in the AHL's Northern Conference during the 1996-97 regular season.

Tortorella returned to the NHL in 1997 as an assistant with the Phoenix Coyotes, where he spent two seasons before joining the New York Rangers for 1999-2000. He served as the Rangers' interim head coach for the final four games of the ?99-00 season before joining the Lightning staff.

Herein lies the reason why Tortorella is probably a better bet for the coaching position. Tortorella has experience coaching young and losing teams. The Coyotes and the 99-00 Rangers were both teams that were not so hot. It turned out to be great experience. After Tortorella took over the Lightning in 2001 he managed to turn the team around. When he was an assistant the team was second to last in the league, with 59 points. When Tortorella took over, the team finished with ten more points. The season after that, the Lightning finished with 95 points winning the South East Division. That season coincided with the maturation of Vinnie Lecavalier, Marty St. louis, and Brad Richards. Since 2003-2004 those three have been seen as legitimate stars in this league. 

Tortorella's ability as a teacher has been overshadowed by his fiery personality. Many people believe that Tortorella would dominate the Islanders. They say that he would limit the play time of the young kids and ruin them with locker room tantrums and tirades. If that were the case Lecavalier, et al, would not be the players they are today. People tend to ignore the plain fact that those players were also young at one time as well. Many people though Lecavalier was not coachable. They though he was a prima-donna and that he would waste his talent. In short he was a project. Yet, two seasons after Tortorella took over Vinnie put up 78 points, way up from 37 the season before. Add to that Tortorella's success at the AHL level and it becomes apparent that he may actually know how to handle young kids. Many people also say that his personality is the type that would conflict with Garth Snow. That is Garth's decision alone, but that probably is not the case. During the seven or so years that Tortorella was with the Lightning I can't remember any of the conflicts that he had with Jay Feaster. That isn't to say they didn't happen I'm just saying that they were so not very memorable. I also do not remember any rumblings that his job was in trouble because of his personality. Winning, though, is the cure to all ills in professional sports so, perhaps when Tortorella was winning games for the Lightning his personality was a non-issue. 

It must be said, though, that as much as Tortorella might criticize management, who really could believe that he would go to the lengths that Ted Nolan did? Like people said, the things Nolan was saying seemed like his attempts to get fired. Tortorella certainly is outspoken, but he is generally constructive with his comments. He also would not be above working with Snow or collaborating on a plan for the two to follow. Any coach would land right there, though. In the end Tortorella has come out unharmed from his team's collapse, whereas Hartley seems to be damaged goods. 

Wrap up:

In my time in hockey, about 15 years or so, I have learned that the best coaches are not one type of personality or another. They can deliver the soft touch when they need to tell a player what they need, and they know when to yell at or bench their players as way of teaching lessons. From what I've seen of the available coaches Tortorella has the best mix of these two traits and he knows how to deal with superstars who have strong personalities, i.e. Rick DiPietro. The last thing the team would need is a soft touch coach who is afraid to stand up to Rick, or who is afraid to stand up for himself when, as so many say, Rick calls up Charles Wang. Bob Hartley actually may have a leg up in that area. With his relationship with Garth Snow, Hartley might have the GM's vote over that of the start goalie. 

You never know what can happen, though. The team may very well go with a relatively unknown coach. Going with the recentish Newsday article Scott Gordon and Mike Sullivan both seem to be at least decent coaching prospects. In a toss up between them I would go with Gordon. The only reason why is that I would be hoping for the Bruce Boudreau factor. Gordon has had success at the AHL with the Providence Bruins but has yet to coach at the NHL level. If the team really wants a coach to play the role of teacher then Gordon probably would be best. On the other hand, Sullivan, just like a good prospect, may be primed for a breakout season. He has had his initial head coaching job with minimal success. But he has had success at the AHL level. It stands to reason, that he could follow in his former boss's footsteps and develop a young team into his own success story. 

So, really, while I come out greatly in favor of John Tortorella here, it is only because he is a known commodity. It may actually be very wise for the team to pick one of the AHL or other coaches that are available. That coach could develop as the team does and could stay a while. 

In any case, the Islanders should continue with "the plan" and develop the team as it should be developed. 

Coaches, Coaches, Coaches...

You know, I started this blog because I dislike being involved in conversations on message boards that require some kind of support. The reason for this is that few people actually lend that kind of support. Instead they make short statements that may or may not be intended to be assertions of fact. This bothers me on the same level as mosquitos buzzing in my ear. Ultimately, not such a big deal, but at the time that can be very frustrating. Such was a discussion I have been embroiled in for a good part of today. 

This discussion was about candidates for the open coaching job on the Island. The reason why this conversation was frustrating was because, first, I misread a posters post and came back with an answer which became asinine because I was just giving the other poster fodder to make me seem dumb. The second reason why it bothered me is because, like so many times before, the poster chose to pick at only one aspect of my original post. Actually, had he/she chosen to respond to everything I said he would have realized that his rebuttal made little sense. 

I have been meaning to jump on this for a while. But instead I've actually been avoiding it. The reason why is because it seemed to be an uninteresting subject. There are nine or so candidates for the coaching job and they will be interview, it appears, at a pace of about two or three per week. That means that the Isles will have a new coach sometime around the middle or end of August, or maybe even the beginning of September. Thus, the subject was uninteresting because there will be a bunch of speculation as the papers report the new interviews, but nothing dispositive for at least a month. Now, however, I am frustrated and I am going to do a little review of the big three coaching candidates.  And yes, I am probably going to twist this a little in favor of the coach I see as being best for the team. 

Let's go in the order of their interviews shall we? That means, Maurice, Heartly, and Tortorella.

Paul Maurice:

So, unbeknownst to me, Paul Maurice has been in this game much longer than many coaches his age have been. He started coaching in juniors when he was around 26 years of age. That is pretty impressive. Had he not suffered an eye injury he would have kept playing through juniors and beyond. Undaunted though, he led the Detroit Jr. Red Wings to an OHL championship and a record of 86-38-8 over two seasons. After that he moved on to the head spot on the Whalers and, of course, the Hurricanes.While coaching the Whalers and Canes he managed to achieve several winning seasons which included a trip to the Cup finals in 2002. He coached the Hurricanes until 2004 and was fired after two seasons of not making the playoffs. In 2005, Maurice took over as the head coach of the Toronto Marlies, the Maple Leafs farm team. The next year he took over as the head coach of the Leafs. Now, two years later, Maurice was unceremoniously dismissed as coach of the Leafs after not making the playoffs over two seasons. 

Maurice has several strong points. First and foremost, Maurice is packing a wealth of knowledge. He has been doing this for 13 years and has coached at every level of hockey. He knows what he is doing, though, that's a given. He achieved a good deal of success with the Whalers/Hurricanes organization. Because he was there for 8 years he had to have been involved in the development of several players into quality NHLers. Also, he did this while coaching a Whalers team that saw just about as much success as the Islanders teams of the mid-90's. So, to sum that up, Maurice did exactly what the Islanders will be hoping he can do for the team. The big problem is that he was expected to do the same thing for the Leafs. On top of that, he was expected to do this with the very players he had been coaching in the minors the year before. If there weren't a few chances to develop some kids there I don't know what they were. Lastly, Maurice took four seasons to turn the Whalers into a winning team. That is just too long really. Also, over that whole time Maurice has developed a reputation as both a patient teacher, and a bit of a cream puff. For a team with a lot of youth that is probably disadvantageous. 

Bob Hartley and John Tortorella to come...

Scoring?

So, an issue people have been discussing since the middle of last season is where the scoring is going to come from. This is a good question. There is not going to be a lot of scoring. At least as it stands right now. At least if the pessimists are right. 

Right now though, I am going to say that as a matter of logic the pessimists are going to be a least a little bit wrong. In that I mean that there is no possible way the kids are going to put up the same numbers as they did last season. 

One poster I noticed on HFBoards.com went to the lengths of picking a few of the young guys on the team and putting up their goal totals so that he might show that we have lost so much scoring with no tangible replacement for it. To really address people like that I am going to take their stats and twist them a little bit. I am going to use last season to project where the kids may end up and in some cases I am going to use some reality to temper those predictions. 

So, first off I am going to see if Kyle Okposo can competently replace Miro Satan, if Blake Comeau can replace Josef Vasicek, and if Sean Bergenheim can replace Ruslan Fedotenko. I am picking these young guys because they saw NHL time last season on a semi-regular basis, or because they are guaranteed to see nearly first line minutes this season. 

Satan's stats looked like this:

Goals: 16 Assists: 25 Points: 41 +/-: -11 Average Time: 18:19

Vasicek's stats:

G: 16 A: 19 P:35 +/-: 1 AT: 15:51

Fedotenko's Stats:

G: 16 A:17 P: 33 +/-: -9 AT: 16:42

And for the kids we have:

Okposo

G: 2 A: 3 P: 5 +/-: 3 AT: 16:28

Comeau: 

G: 8 A: 7 P: 15 +/-: 1 AT: 11:40

Bergenhiem:

G: 10 A: 12 P: 22 +/-: -3 AT: 11:15

Looking at the stats it seems that the kids did not really do much last season. What a lot of people forget, though, is the ATOI stat (or AT as I put it). ATOI stands for the average time on ice and this is important if you want to accurately project how many points a player is going to score. Logic has it that the longer a player is on the ice, the more scoring opportunities that they will be involved in. ATOI is the first thing to remember here. The second thing to remember is that most of the kids did not play the entire season. Bergenheim is the only one to have played the full season on the Island. 

The way I am going to twist the stats used by the pessimists I am going to do some simple math, at least with Okposo and Comeau. If you do the math, taking the number of points scored and multiplying that with the percentage of the season the kids played and disregarding ice time the kids will get about this many points this season:

Okposo, last season played 9 games, rounding down one game to make it a little easier, Okposo projects as a 50 point scorer. So, not only did he replace Satan, but he is also out scoring Comrie also.

Comeau played in 51 games last season, which is about 60% of the season. He notched 15 points. According to the math, if Comeau played 31 more games, or roughly the other 40% of the season he looks to notch 6 more points for a total of 21.

Begenheim played in 78 games last season and the long and the short of it is that playing in the other four games of the season he should get just one more point. Not very exciting. 

Comeau and Bergenheim are looking at about 20-25% increases in play time and Okposo is looking at maybe a 15% increase in ice time. I am not up to the math for that, but imagine, if you will, the impact of that increased ice time. Basically, the young guys are going to pick up the scoring whether the try or not.  So if I make some kind of educated guess accounting for better ice time and reality what I come up with is Okposo scoring in a range of 45-55 points; Comeau scoring in a range of 25-35 points; and Bergenheim scoring in a range of 25-35 points. 

Other X factors for scoring are going to be the impact that Mark Streit and a healthy Chris Campoli will have as well as the impact Doug Weight might have on the team. Weight by the way, had 25 points in 67 games last season. He also got second and third line minutes playing for the Ducks. By only playing 17 extra games though, Weight was looking at a 30 point season. That is certainly not stellar, but he may very well make sure that at least one of the young guys on the team hits the marks I projected. 

Looking at the numbers, the scoring is probably replaced by playing the kids a little more. If Jeff Tambellini can actually start scoring life could be good. Right now Tamby is looking at scoring 6 points over a whole season. Of the young players on the Isles he received the worst play time for a player expected to score goals. Even Frans Neilsen had a better average ice time than Tambellini. The thing is that Tamby could be a star in the making. Now that he is no longer facing Nolan's ire he should start scoring. There are no obstacles in his way, and most people project him to play on the top lines with Weight and Guerin, two guys who have but one job, to get Tamby the puck in a way that will let him score goals. 

The bottom line is that even with the kids in key spots, the team is no worse off than it was in the middle of last season. The kids could seriously underachieve and not meet my projections, but they could also exceed them. Only time will tell. 

P.S. - this post will eventually be edited. I wrote this very early in the morning So it's going to need it.