Boom and Bust

CrossbarSniper, an HFboards member came up with this simple, but interesting topic: Which one  player will surprise us as fans with his performance, and which will be a complete disappointment? In response to this topic most people have been sitting on guys like Streit, Geurin, Weight, Neilsen, Okposo, Gervais, and Tambellini as the busts. On the other hand, more than a few people have said that they see Bergenheim, Sim, and Hilbert as what they see as pleasant surprises. 

I don't really agree with any of these suggestions. Actually, that's a lie. I think that Okposo and Comeau are both due for 20-25 point seasons. They will provide a little bit of jump to this team and could easily run well over 25 points. Jeff Tambellini, also, should likely be a pleasant surprise for Islander fans. One HFboards contributor suggested that he will do enough to get traded; that could be true, but he should show a little bit of flash that was missing in the past few seasons. Basically, we should see his confidence grow progressively during the season. I foresee 15+ points for him, but I will say that I see 10 of those points being goals. I also see Tamby being the difference maker in more than a few shootouts. The young guys on the team are going to be under some scrutiny during this rebuild, but it should be said that not all of them will break out at the same time. If one or two of them breaks out this season will have been successful. 

The people taking aim at the veterans to be disappointing will be surprised a little as well. But just a little. Reading the board it becomes clear that any production from the vets will be a little bit of a surprise. So, let me drop this truth bomb on everyone: Bill Guerin's production will be nearly the same as it was last season. While the team again looks a different, the roster is not so changed that Guerin cannot keep up his 40 point pace. Doug Weight, on the other hand is totally up in the air. In 06-07 Weight notched 59 points playing along side his good friend Bill Guerin; in 07-08 Weight was traded after 29 games and was taken from a first/second line position to a third/fourth line role with the Ducks. He was scratched for a number of games and ended the season with only 25 points. Clearly, he will not reach 59 points with the Isles. But, he should be able to get to the 35 point range without too much trouble, and at the same time he will be teaching the kids how to actually play the game. 

None of these players that I have talked about, though, would be my choice for a potential surprise player. In the format chosen by HFBoards posters my choice is:

Surprise: Freddy Meyer

Meyer at the start of last season was just a utility player. He was on the roster to take up space and fill in if someone did not play that well. That was unfortunate, because when he was acquired Meyer was at a point where, with the right coaching, he could become a successful every day defenseman. During his first real season in the NHL in 05-06 Meyer scored 27 points in 57 games. He was also a +10. He was able to contribute both offensively and defensively and was on his way to becoming a complete player. The next season, however, Meyer did not keep up his performance and was traded to the Islanders. In 35 games in 06-07 he put up three points, but had an even +/- rating. This past season Meyer ended up being surplus. He only made a few appearances with the Islanders before being waived and picked up by the Coyotes. However, after 5 games in Phoenix he was again waived and brought bak to the Island. After Meyer's return the plague of injuries started and Ted Nolan was forced to play him. Meyer did not disappoint. However, the most telling period during last season was when Brendan Witt was injured. The defense needed someone to step up and be any kind of force and, as it turns out, Meyer was that man. Over 52 games for the Islanders Meyer only notched 12 points, 3 goals 9 assists, but was also a +10 on what finished the season as a somewhat terrible team. His defensive game evolved last season and he very much fill Witt's shoes. Granted Scott Gordon gives him any kind of appreciable playing time this season Freddy Meyer should be even more of a success. 

Picking a bust on this team is actually harder than picking someone to break out. The reason why is that the expectations for the Islanders are already so low. I could talk about a guy like Andy Hilbert, but he's obvious. I love the optimism showed by those people that think that Hilbert is due for an offensive explosion, but it just does not seem to be in the cards. He had a great 05-06 when he played with the Penguins and notched 18 points in 19 games, but in the two seasons since, he has not showed any kind of promise. He scored fewer points last season than he did the season before, but had at least the same ice time, and possibly even more. Not to mention, that since he was a "Nolan" player he played in almost every situation. If he was going to start scoring left and right it would have been then. Hilbert, however, would be an obvious choice as a bust, and an even more obvious choice as a surprise. I mean, I think it would be down right shocking if Hilbert turned into a 30 goal scorer. Instead, I will go for another person that seems to be trying as hard as possible to become a very successful bust:

Bust: Rick DiPietro

DP has become the poster boy for almost all of the Islanders' problems. He may even have been one of the deciding factors in Ted Nolan losing his job. He has an attitude and is probably, as some have suggested, becoming a clubhouse cancer. Like many cancers, he has shown that he is nearly uncoachable and this represents a real problem for the team moving forward. As I said in my previous post, the team, especially Scott Gordon, needs to find a way to make DP accountable for his actions. If they do this, he should become more of a team player and will check some of his attitude at the door. As a side note, DP's attitude stems a bit from his team pride. I feel as if no one has more desire to see him team succeed than Rick DiPietro, but I also see that because of that, he won't call it a season when he has hip problems that require surgery. To this point we have seen Rick go from young prospect to everyday starting goalie. In the last three seasons we have seen his games played total plateau at about 63. We have seen him compete. However, this season is a make or break season for Rick DiPietro. He is coming off of another hip surgery and he has a new coach. Add to that the intention of management to limit his play time a little more and we have the makings of a problem. If Scott Gordon misses out on connecting with Rick then it is easy to envision bad blood forming between the two. We shall see how that pans out. 

The big reason why DP will be a bust is that people are still expecting him to become a superstar goalie. Deny it all you want, but every Islander fan wishes that DP would step up and start channeling some combination of Billy Smith and Patrick Roy. This probably isn't going to happen. Rick looked like he was going to get back into form early this season when he was playing on a level with his 03-04 performance when he put up a 2.36 GAA, .911 Save Percentage, and 5 shutouts. In fact, he played this way nearly until the All Star break. DP was also an All Star. But after the break, when he messed up his hip again, DiPietro's play fell off in a remarkable fashion. 

I foresee something like that happening again this season. He may not get hurt, but in the end DP's numbers will be more or less normal. That is what will be so disappointing about his play. His normal may be that of a goalie that is on his best days a top 10 or even a top 7 goalie in the NHL, but it will probably not ever exceed that. In fact, if you think about it, DP may never even have a chance to become that top 5 goaltender because his injuries are going to limit the length of his career and the next few seasons will be lost to a rebuild. You never know though, I could end up being wrong in the future. DP could very well achieve, but for this season we will all be somewhat disappointed with the way that he plays.

I also have some honorable mentions. First, I want to finally put in a good word for Joey MacDonald. While I dislike him as the choice for backup goalie on this team, he should be a bit of a pleasant surprise. I make this assertion based on not so much, more of a feeling than anything else, but I had a chance to see Joey Mac play for the Bruins two seasons ago and over the (only) seven games that he played for them he proved to be very capable. His ceiling really is as a backup, but that doesn't mean that he can't play at least a little bit well. I still hope that Snow comes to his senses and pulls someone like Robert Esche out of his hat, but MacDonald should be able to hold down the fort a little bit. 

As a dishonorable mention as a bust I would go for Andy Sutton. Someone on HFBoards said that Doug Weight would be the slowest skater on our team, but they obviously forgot that Andy Sutton is still on the roster. Sutton is still a little bit of a physical force, but he probably should end up platooning through the last paring with Bruno Gervais, another honorable mention as a possible bust. Its not that Sutton's defense is so bad, but he isn't that fast and at 33 he is one of those players that trend against the youth movement. 

As always, here's to hoping that this season is somewhat less disappointing than we all think it will. 

Wherein Rick DiPietro is a character...

Mexico, apparently, was a little bit of an underdog coming into the International Championship Game for the Little League World Series. Their opponents, Japan, have been in this game, or sniffing around it for a while now. The Mexicans have been less consistent. By the middle of the third inning Mexico was down by two and trying to think of how to get into the game. Then, in the bottom of the third, the Mexicans turned it on. They batted around and, as I sit here watching, now possess a 5-2 lead. The Mexicans have been persistent in their approach towards Japan. They stayed patient, swung at the pitches they could hit, got on base, and now they have their opponents right where they want them. 

Such is the approach that Scott Gordon is going to have to take with Rick DiPietro. As we have seen and heard, Ricky has been growing a little bit, eh, uncoachable. That isn't to say that the right coach could not get through to him, but Rick has begun to realize that, not only has he become a star in the NHL, but that he has job security that you just cannot find anywhere else. 

His contract as it stands right now will allow him to outlast any coach that the Islanders hire. That is important because, at least to some extent coaches can be seen as members of management. I say this because on pro sports teams, the coach has an allegiance to his players, but reports to the GM, and at times works directly with him. It is all part of the synergy needed to create a winning team. 

At various points during the off season the GM, coach, and scouts will sit down and decide where the team is going and which players fit with that direction. These meetings will decide whether a player is traded, demoted, bought out, or just let go. Thus, it behooves a player to keep a relatively good rapport with the coach and the rest of the team, and generally to give it his all night in and night out. DP just does not fit into that mold. 

Rick is going to be with the team for so long that he likely will see two, or maybe three coaches before his contract is up. He is the team's star goaltender and the state of the roster is such that he cannot be replaced. Add to it that Rick is Garth Snow's good friend and that the team's all too hands-on owner Charlie Wang likes DP's style and we see that he won't be replaced. 

Without the fear that his play will impact his contract status Rick is somewhat impervious to the usual leverage a coach has. So, all this explanation leads up to the fact that Gordon is likely not ever going to be able to simply bench DP; that he just won't be able to be the typical coach, involved, but detached. Gordon is going to have to get into DiPietro's head, become his friend, and be able to actually speak to him. This is an area where, if you believe the reports, Ted Nolan failed.

Why this is necessary is something that tons of people take issue with, i.e. DP's personality. He is cocky. He is a little rude. He is super duper full of himself. At least that is what everyone says, though, they are probably right. Sorry, Rick, but people don't always like it when you act like you know how good you are. On the other hand, I have to say, lots of people say that Rick is a whiner. I'm pretty sure that that isn't true. Rick is a competitor and he wants to play. He is the type of guy that wants to be in the net during the second overtime in game seven of the Cup finals. He will play hurt and he will continually give it his all because to do less would bother him. That is why Gordon needs to handle him delicately. 

DiPietro's competitiveness and his ego will not permit him to recognize him limits. We all saw last season where DP injured his hip during the Allstar game. After that DP's play was garbage. He was trying, but he was too hurt to actually give it his all. That was Nolan's fault. 

When Rick began to falter the Isles were contending for a playoff spot. If Nolan had recognized that Rick was ailing the team could have shut DP down and tried to pick up a rental goalie like Cristobal Huet who was available for a 2nd round pick. Had that happened the Islanders may or may not have made the playoffs, but Nolan may very well still have a job. 

Now, however, we have Scott Gordon, and the youth movement is probably much better for it and DP should be better for it too. So long as Gordon can get into DiPietro's head, issues like play time and health should work themselves out. Gordon can approach DP and tell him that he is playing 55 or 60 games per season until he sees that Rick's hips still work, and that if Rick is hurt that he'll tell Gordon instead of slowly dropping into mediocrity. They can work out boundaries for Rick's exuberance. They can get past DP throwing pies into his teammates' faces and acting like a rockstar and get him to be a member of this team. 

Gordon needs to get the team to buy into his system and notions of accountability. But he needs to get DP to buy into it individually. If he can it will only be a short time until the Isles grow into a solid team with a topflight goalie; if not, Gordon's tenure may be just as rocky as Ted Nolan's.